Agahenge mu biciro ku isoko gashobora gutegerezwa mu mwaka utaha

Banki Nkuru y’u Rwanda yatangaje ko harimo gukorwa ibishoboka mu kugabanya izamuka ry’ibiciro ku isoko, ndetse iteganyamibare rigaragaza ko mu mwaka utaha bizagabanyuka mu buryo bugaragara.

Agahenge mu biciro ku isoko gashobora gutegerezwa mu mwaka utaha

Imibare mpuzamahanga igaragaza ko muri uyu mwaka, ibiciro ku isoko bizakomeza kuzamuka bikagera kuri 7,4%, umubare utaherukaga ku rwego rw’Isi, mu mwaka ushize byari 4,7%.

Ni ibibazo bishingiye ahanini ku ntambara y’u Burusiya na Ukraine n’ibihano bikomeje gufatirwa u Burusiya. Harimo n’igenda gahoro ry’ubukungu bw’u Bushinwa, kuri ubu buhanganye n’ubwandu bushya bwa COVID-19.

Ibyo byose byagize ingaruka ku izamuka ry’ibiciro ku masoko ku rwego mpuzamahanga, ku buryo imibare igaragaza ko uyu mwaka umuvuduko w’izamuka ry’ibiciro mu Rwanda uzarenga urubibi ntarengwa rwa 8%, ukagera ku 9,2%.

Ni mu gihe BNR iba yifuza ko iryo zamuka ku mwaka ubundi ritarenga 5%.

Guverineri wa Banki Nkuru y’u Rwanda, John Rwangombwa, kuri uyu wa Kane yavuze ko iri zamuka ry’ibiciro rizakomeza muri uyu mwaka.

Yabigarutseho ubwo hatangazwaga imyanzuro y’inama ngarukagihembwe ya Komite ishinzwe Politiki y’ifaranga na Komite ishinzwe ubutajegajega bw’urwego rw’imari.

Politiki y’ifaranga yanzuye ko umuvuduko w’izamuka ry’ibiciro ku isoko uzamanuka “usatira igipimo fatizo cya 5% mu mezi atandatu ya nyuma y’umwaka wa 2023."

Guverineri Rwangombwa yavuze ko hejuru y’ibyo bibazo mpuzamahanga, umusaruro w’igihembwe cy’ihinga A nawo ntiwagenze neza.

Ati “Ibyo byose iyo ubishyize hamwe bigaragaza ko umuvuduko w’ibiciro ku masoko muri uyu mwaka uzaba uri hejuru y’igipimo tugenderaho, nticyagombye kurenga 8% ariko kubera ibi bibazo biri ku rwego mpuzamahanga, tubona muri rusange umuvuduko w’ibiciro muri 2022 ushobora kugera ku 9.,2%.”

“Ariko twareba mu mwaka utaha, bizatangira kugenda bimanuka tujye ku mupuzadengo hafi ya 7,6%, ndetse mu gice cya kabiri cy’umwaka utaha bizamanuka bigere kuri hafi kuri 5%, ari cyo gipimo ubundi ngenderwaho twifuza ko bitarenga."

Komite ya Politiki y’ifaranga yavuze ko hagendewe kuri icyo cyizere, yafashe icyemezo cyo kugumisha igipimo fatizo cy’inyungu ya BNR kuri 5%.

Agaruka ku biciro kandi, Guverineri Rwangombwa yavuze ko urebye nk’ibikomoka kuri peteroli, akagunguru kageze ku madolari ari munsi ya 110, ndetse ngo abasesenguzi batanga icyizere ko gashobora kutaharenga ngo kagere mu madolari 150.

Gusa ngo ayo mafaranga kagura, ugereranyije n’umwaka ushize nubwo hatagira andi arengaho, ateye ikibazo ku izamuka ry’ibiciro.


Umusaruro w’igihembwe cy’ihinga A ntiwagenze neza nk'uko byari byitezwe
Urebye nk’ihindagurika ry’ibiciro mu Rwanda, mu gihembwe cya mbere cy’uyu mwaka ryari 5,1%, naho mu gihembwe cya kabiri riba 8,5%, ndetse mu gihembwe cya gatatu bizazamuka kurushaho.

Icyakora yavuze ko leta igenda ifata ibyemezo nko gushyiraho nkunganire ku bikomoka kuri peteroli n’inyongeramusaruro zituruka hanze, byitezweho gufasha mu kugabanya iki gitutu.

Yakomeje ati “Ibyo Leta ikora, natwe ibyo dukora nka Banki Nkuru y’Igihugu, byunganira mu kugabanya ubwo bukana ariko ntabwo bubukuraho burundu, kuko ni ikibazo kiturenze giturutse hanze."

"Ariko nanone bizaterwa n’uko umusaruro w’igihembwe cy’ihinga B uzagenda, uzatangira kuboneka mu kwezi kwa gatandatu […]. Ariko uwo musaruro ugenze neza dushobora guhita tubona bimanutse, cyane cyane izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ibiribwa rishobora guhita rimanuka, ugasanga bwa bukana twari dufite buramanutse."

Ikigo cy’igihugu gishinzwe Ibarurishamibare mu Rwanda (NISR) giheruka gutangaza ko ibiciro mu mijyi byiyongereyeho 9,9% muri Mata 2022, ugereranyije na Mata 2021.

Ibiciro byiyongereye bitewe ahanini n’ibiciro by’ibiribwa n’ibinyobwa bidasembuye byiyongereyeho 15,7%, ibiciro by’inzu, amazi, amashanyarazi, gaz n’ibindi bicanwa byiyongereyeho 8,8%, ibiciro by’ibijyanye n’ubwikorezi byiyongereyeho 7% n’ibiciro by’amacumbi n’amafunguro byiyongereyeho 15%.

Ingaruka z’izamuka ry’ibiciro ku bucuruzi

Imibare ya BNR igaragaza ko agaciro k’ibyo u Rwanda rwohereza mu mahanga kazamutseho 44,6% mu gihembwe cya mbere.

Byatewe ahanini n’izamuka ry’ibiciro ku rwego mpuzamahanga, u Rwanda rubyungukiramo ku bintu birimo amabuye y’agaciro, icyayi, ikawa n’ibindi.

“Ku rwego mpuzamahanga ibiciro byarazamutse bituma amafaranga dukura mu byo twohereza hanze azamuka, ikindi ni uko ibyo twohereza biva mu nganda nk’ibiribwa na sima nabyo byariyogereye bituma bifasha kuzamuka kw’amafaranga dukura mu byo twohereza hanze.”

“Uko ubukungu bwagiye burushaho gufunguka mu gihugu, ibyo dutumiza hanze nabyo byarazamutse, byazamutseho 14,2%, byazamutse ku bwinshi bw’ibyo dutumiza ariko binazamuka ku biciro.”

“Nk’ibikomoka kuri peteroli igiciro cyarazamutse cyane, ibyo rero bizamura amafaranga dukenera yo gutumiza ibintu hanze, ariko iyo urebye kuriya kuzamuka cyane kw’ibyo twohereza hanze byatumye ikinyuranyo cy’ibyo twohereza hanze n’ibyo dukuraho hanze kigabanukaho 2,6%.”

Umwaka ushize warangiye u Rwanda rufite ubwizigame bushobora gukoreshwa mu gutumiza ibintu hanze mu gihe gisaga amezi atanu, mu gihe nta yandi madovizeyaba yinjiye.