Ubukungu bw’u Rwanda bwahawe inota rya B+Negative; bisobanuye iki?

Icyorezo cya Covid-19 cyagize ingaruka hafi kuri buri gihugu cyose ku Isi, ariko ibihugu biri mu nzira y’amajyambere birimo n’u Rwanda byibasiwe kurushaho. Mu 2020, ubukungu bw’u Rwanda bwamanutse ku kigero cya 3.4%, nyuma y’uko bwari bumaze igihe kinini buzamuka ku mpuzanddengo ya 7,4% mu myaka itanu mbere ya 2019.

Ubukungu bw’u Rwanda bwahawe inota rya B+Negative; bisobanuye iki?

Ubukungu bw’u Rwanda buri kuzahuka bitewe n’uko igihugu cyabashije ahanini guhashya icyorezo cya Covid-19 mu buryo bukomeye byagizwemo uruhare n’ibikorwa by’ikingira.

U Rwanda ruza mu bihugu bya mbere ku Isi mu gukingira abaturage benshi, bamaze kurenga 64% bakingiwe byuzuye, ugereranyije n’impuzandengo ikiri munsi ya 20% muri Afurika yo munsi y’Ubutayu bwa Sahara, kugera ku itariki ya 7 Gicurasi 2022.

Uretse kuba ibikorwa byinshi imbere mu gihugu byarafunguwe, Leta yanafashe inguzanyo mu mahanga mu gutera inkunga ibikorwa by’ingenzi mu kuzahura ubukungu bwagizweho ingaruka na Covid-19.

Izi nguzanyo zavuye kuri 22,7% by’umusaruro mbumbe w’ubukungu mu 2012 zigera kuri 60,7% byawo mu 2019.

Mu bihe bya Covid-19, zarushijeho kwiyongera, aho uyu mwaka urangira zigeze kuri 77,7% by’umusaruro mbumbe w’ubukungu bw’u Rwanda, zivuye kuri 78,3% zariho mu mwaka ushize.

U Rwanda rufite ubushobozi bwo kwishyura inguzanyo rwafashe kuko 88% byazo ari inguzanyo ziciriritse, zishyurwa mu gihe kirekire, icyakora ubu bwiyongere budasanzwe bw’inguzanyo bwatumye amanota y’u Rwanda agabanuka muri ibi bihe.

Ikigo cya Fitch Ratings gikora ubushakashatsi ku budahangarwa bw’ubukungu bw’ibihugu ku rwego rw’Isi n’ubushobozi bwabyo bwo kwishyura inguzanyo, giherutse gushyira u Rwanda mu bihugu bifite inota rya ‘B+ Negative’ ruvuye mu bifite inota rya ‘B+Stable.’

Ntabwo u Rwanda ruri mu bihugu bifite ibyago byo kunanirwa kwishyura inguzanyo rufite, ariko imanuka ry’amanota kuri uru rutonde rishimangira ko Leta ikwiriye gukomeza gushyiraho ingamba zikomeye zo kurengera ubusugire bw’ubukungu bw’igihugu.

Ni izihe mpungenge ku bukungu bw’u Rwanda?

Ubukungu bw’u Rwanda buhagaze neza muri rusange, kuko uyu mwaka buzazamuka ku kigero cya 5% nk’uko Raporo ya Fitch Ratings ibigaragaza, nyuma y’uko bwari bwazamutse ku kigero cya 10,9% mu mwaka ushize.

Icyakora nubwo bimeze bityo, hari byinshi bigituma ishusho y’ubu bukungu ishobora guhindana mu gihe bitakwitabwaho, cyane cyane muri ibi bihe igihugu kikirimo gusohoka mu ngaruka cyagizweho na Covid-19.

Bimwe muri ibyo harimo nko kuba ikinyuranyo cy’ibyo u Rwanda rutumiza mu mahanga kizarushaho kwiyongera ugereranyije n’ibyo rwoherezayo, kikagera kuri 13,2% by’umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu muri uyu mwaka, kivuye kuri 11,3% mu 2021.

Iri zamuka ryatijwe umurindi n’uko ibyo u Rwanda rutumiza mu mahanga nabyo byarushijeho kuzamuka.

Iby’ingenzi muri byo ni ibikomoka kuri peteroli bigize 9% u Rwanda rutumiza mu mahanga ndetse n’ibirimo ibiribwa bigize 11%, byose bikaba byarazamuye ibiciro ku isoko mpuzamahanga.

Iri zamuka ry’ibiciro ku isoko mpuzamahanga ryagize ingaruka zitari nziza ku biciro ku masoko yo mu Rwanda, aho byitezwe ko uyu mwaka bishobora kuzamuka ku kigero kiri hejuru 8%, mu gihembwe cya mbere cy’uyu mwaka bikaba byari bigeze kuri 5,6%.

Ibi bishobora kugira ingaruka zitandukanye zirimo kuba u Rwanda rushobora gukenera inguzanyo zo kuziba icyuho cy’ibitumizwa n’ibyoherezwa mu mahanga, mu gihe igabanuka ry’izamuka ry’ubukungu bwaryo rishobora guca intege abashoramari.


U Rwanda rugirwa inama yo kugabanya icyuho kiri mu ngengo y'imari
Uburyo u Rwanda rushobora guhangana n’izi ngaruka

Fitch Ratings isobanura ko hari ingamba nyinshi zishobora gushyirwa mu bikorwa mu rwego rwo kugira ngo u Rwanda ruhangane izi ngaruka.

Icya mbere ni ukugabanya icyuho kiri mu ngengo y’imari, aho Leta iteganya kukigabanya kikagera ku kigero cya 6% by’umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu mu 2023, kivuye kuri 7,1% muri uyu mwaka. Mu 2020, cyari kuri 8,6%.

Kugabanya iki cyuho bivuze ko Leta izagabanya ibyo yashoraga, ariko byitezwe ko ibyo ishora (mu kubaka ibikorwaremezo n’ibindi nk’ibyo), bizakomeza kuba ku kigero cya 13% by’umusaruro mbumbe, hejuru y’impuzandengo ya 11% yariho mu myaka itanu mbere ya 2019.

Leta kandi igirwa inama yo gukomeza gucunga inguzanyo ifata, zigakomeza kuba iziciriritse, zihendutse kandi z’igihe kirekire. Kugeza ubu, impuzandengo y’igihe inguzanyo z’u Rwanda igena zogomba kuza zishyuwe ni imyaka 12.

Ni ingenzi kandi ko Leta ikomeza kongera umusaruro uturuka imbere mu gihugu, nk’imisoro, ishobora gukoreshwa mu gushyira mu bikorwa ingamba zayo idakeneye inguzanyo.

Ibi kandi bikajyana no kongera ibyo u Rwanda rwohereza mu mahanga, ku buryo bigabanya ikinyuranyo cy’ibyo rwoherezayo n’ibyo rutumizayo, kandi hakaboneka amadevize akenewe mu guteza imbere ubukungu muri rusange.

Leta kandi igirwa inama yo kugenzura ibikorwa ishoramo amafaranga, kugira ngo bigabanye icyuho kiri mu ngengo y’imari.

Ibi bishobora gutuma Leta ishyira imbaraga mu nzego zimwe na zimwe kubera ingaruka zazo ku bukungu bw’u Rwanda.

Ku bijyanye no kwishyura inguzanyo, u Rwanda rufite ubushobozi bwo kuzishyura neza, kabone nubwo nk’inyungu ku nguzanyo z’imbere mu gihugu yiyongereye, gusa ibi nta mpungenge biteye kuko urwego rw’imari mu Rwanda ruhagaze neza.

Ibi kandi ni ko bimeze no ku nguzanyo zo mu mahanga, aho u Rwanda rufite ubushobozi bwo kuzishyura mu buryo burambye.


Ubukungu bw'u Rwanda buratanga icyizere mu bihe biri imbere